Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
89 0x896a…7b9c crypto 554 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,141 (-17%) realized −$3,136 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate55%286W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$265
other 17% −$1
tech 13% +$46
world 10% −$6
politics 3% +$28
sports 3% −$25
finance 0% −$73
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -58.1% -62.1% 33% 25% -60.3%
≤30d 57 -14.9% -23.0% 68% 33% -9.1%
≤90d 485 -19.9% -27.6% 56% 20% -10.4%
all 520 -18.8% -26.5% 55% 19% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 19% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 12% -19.7%
15% -40.0% 7% -27.5%
20% -45.9% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$3,493
Realized−$3,136
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses286 / 234
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)520 / 554
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $841 $843 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $476 $476 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $455 $452 −$2 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 97¢ 96¢ $194 $193 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $168 $173 +$5 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 95¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $87 $88 +$0 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 77¢ 85¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+10%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 88¢ 81¢ $88 $81 −$8 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $38 $43 +$6 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 46¢ 18¢ $46 $18 −$28 (-62%)
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? No 36¢ 32¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +39%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $875 +$48 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +15%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $46 +$4 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $771 +$26 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $75 +$25 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $12 −$7 -58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$10 -80%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $197 +$3 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $27 −$22 -81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $446 +$14 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 +$8 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $54 −$19 -35%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $484 +$14 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $706 +$14 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +47%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $6 +$4 +62%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $8 +$2 +28%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $8 +$2 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 18m
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 1h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 2h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 2h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 3h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $0 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 7h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 9h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 9h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 9h
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $9 10h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $1 22h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $5 22h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $3 22h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY No 36¢ $7 34h
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 34h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 77¢ $78 35h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 36h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 37h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $47 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $21 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $29 39h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $25 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,493.04 · official $3,493.04 (match) · 3500 history records