Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8967…1e9b world 85 markets active 11d ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$22,384 (+10%) realized +$22,384 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%44W / 41L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$2,519per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$362
30 days+$682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$32,352
world 26% −$17,627
other 24% +$7,241
crypto 0% +$390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 88% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 88% 0% -7.7%
all 85 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 26% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 26% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 22% -9.6%
15% -29.2% 19% -18.4%
20% -36.1% 12% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$3,966) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,373 vs −$928 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses44 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage660d
Avg bet$2,519
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $4,910 +$48 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $9,910 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $5,424 +$160 +3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $6,317 +$150 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the government shutdown end November 10? Jun 09 $2,979 +$21 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Jun 09 $3,966 +$298 +8%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 10 $980 −$627 -64%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 10 $4,943 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $4,950 +$10 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $4,950 +$10 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $4,955 +$10 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $4,950 +$15 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 21 $945 −$759 -80%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 19 $4,930 +$185 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 19 $5,930 −$4,240 -72%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Oct 19 $6,444 −$5,737 -89%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? Oct 19 $7,579 −$5,593 -74%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August? Jun 25 $2,288 −$1,288 -56%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June? Jun 25 $348 +$196 +56%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by July 15? Jun 25 $352 +$497 +141%
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September? Jun 24 $47 −$32 -69%
Will Khamenei leave Iran before July? Jun 24 $1,054 −$556 -53%
US x Iran ceasefire before August? Jun 24 $560 +$240 +43%
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $850 +$49 +6%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 24 $880 +$120 +14%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jun 23 $778 −$30 -4%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 23 $940 +$60 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jun 22 $360 −$171 -48%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $5,038 +$2,757 +55%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $1,950 −$780 -40%
Israel strike on Iran on June 20? Jun 18 $1,731 +$118 +7%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 17 $11 −$5 -50%
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July? Jun 17 $199 +$106 +53%
Israel strike on Iran on June 16? Jun 16 $154 +$46 +30%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 16 $356 +$157 +44%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 16 $31 −$15 -48%
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July? Jun 16 $160 −$20 -12%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 16 $150 −$75 -50%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 16 $100 −$40 -40%
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? Jun 15 $491 −$38 -8%
Iranian coup attempt before July? Jun 15 $187 +$51 +27%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jun 14 $48 −$15 -31%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 07 $170 −$48 -28%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? May 07 $1,680 +$183 +11%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? May 07 $8,320 −$55 -1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? May 06 $169 −$118 -70%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 06 $6,117 −$810 -13%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Apr 19 $990 +$390 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4,958 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4,964 10d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5,584 10d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $6,467 10d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $553 20d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 20d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $93 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 3¢ $48 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 3¢ $60 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 3¢ $124 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 230d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 230d
Will the government shutdown end November 10? BUY No 99¢ $2,979 230d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,940 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,511 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,059 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,377 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1536 history records