Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8966…6854
world · 67 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$25 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge
Net worth$17
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage442d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 2 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,273 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $106 +$4 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $274 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $217 +$2 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $233 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $97 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -23%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $97 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $195 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $3 $0 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $96 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $9 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $38 +$5 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $196 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $88 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $97 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $88 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $95 −$4 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $62 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $129 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $558 −$4 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $185 +$2 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $556 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $556 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $14 −$4 -30%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $4 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $190 +$1 +0%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $111 −$2 -2%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 14 $192 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $155 +$1 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $178 +$15 +8%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 27 $13 $0 +3%
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$15
sports 22% +$14
other 21% −$3
politics 9% −$4
economics 3% +$3
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $15 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $78 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 10h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 40h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $90 40h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 41h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $96 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $106 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $86 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $86 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $77 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $77 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $26 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $48 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 44 +45.6% +31.8% 43% 7% -9.4%
all 65 +29.3% +17.0% 45% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.0% 5% -9.2%
10% +5.8% 3% -17.9%
15% -4.4% 3% -25.8%
20% -13.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.95 · official $16.45 (match) · 259 history records