Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8966…3476
crypto · 347 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$384 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$380 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$380
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses189 / 399
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)588 / 347
History coverage17d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day204.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 588 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$241
14 days−$303
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 +$1 +1483%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$6 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 +$4 +863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$2 -288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$3 -167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$28 +1411%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $6 −$9 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -145%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% −$169
other 6% −$5
sports 4% +$23
weather 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 +39.1% +25.8% 27% 26% -29.1%
≤30d 588 +34.5% +21.7% 32% 30% -24.3%
≤90d 588 +34.5% +21.7% 32% 30% -24.3%
all 588 +34.5% +21.7% 32% 30% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover204.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.7% 30% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here +10.0% 28% -31.6%
15% -0.6% 25% -38.2%
20% -10.3% 21% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.23 · official $2.23 (match) · 3500 history records