Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x8965…00b7 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$178 (-33%) realized −$166 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.5% +15.3% 67% 67% +15.0%
≤30d 4 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -56.7%
≤90d 4 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -56.7%
all 4 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 50% -56.7%
10% -21.8% 50% -60.8%
15% -29.3% 25% -64.6%
20% -36.3% 25% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$106 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage20d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $34 $39 +$4 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $63 +$17 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$22 +71%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $212 −$207 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 22h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $27 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.19 · official $160.19 (match) · 37 history records