Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8965…f1e2 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate74%85W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1
sports 3% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 72% -10.9%
≤30d 114 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 72% -10.9%
≤90d 114 -1.5% -10.9% 74% 72% -10.9%
all 115 -1.4% -10.8% 74% 72% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 72% -10.4%
10% -19.3% 44% -19.0%
15% -27.1% 23% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses85 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage183d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $6.49 · 277 history records