Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8963…3dad other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1
sports 40% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.5% -19.0% 10% 0% -18.3%
≤30d 10 -10.5% -19.0% 10% 0% -18.3%
≤90d 10 -10.5% -19.0% 10% 0% -18.3%
all 10 -10.5% -19.0% 10% 0% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 0% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 0% -26.1%
15% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
20% -40.3% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 $0 -4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 52m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records