Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8962…9235 politics 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$6
other 38% −$5
sports 13% −$2
culture 4% $0
economics 2% −$5
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 79 -8.6% -17.3% 6% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage372d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $113 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $167 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $54 $0 -1%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $106 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $110 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $1 $0 -15%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $123 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $2 $0 -16%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $1 $0 -17%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $111 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $68 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $57 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 02 $122 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 28 $7 −$5 -69%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $13 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $53 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 104d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 112d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 121d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 127d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 130d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 139d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $55 141d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $55 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 146d
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $53 148d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $54 150d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $54 151d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 152d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $53 155d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 156d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 159d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $51 161d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $51 164d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 164d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 165d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 165d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $53 165d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $53 166d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 166d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 166d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records