Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
89 0x8956…755f sports 1143 markets active 0h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$990 (-1%) realized −$998 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%583W / 519L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$146
14 days+$626
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$2,331
politics 27% −$6,843
other 16% +$4,178
crypto 2% −$341
culture 1% −$18
tech 1% −$262
economics 1% −$218
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +35.5% +22.6% 54% 52% -3.5%
≤30d 201 +9.0% -1.3% 52% 50% -1.6%
≤90d 674 -2.1% -11.4% 53% 49% -11.8%
all 1102 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 49% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 49% -10.2%
10% -21.1% 45% -18.8%
15% -28.7% 41% -26.7%
20% -35.7% 36% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$58 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$1,736
Realized−$998
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses583 / 519
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1102 / 1143
History coverage322d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 1102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $110 $121 +$11 (+10%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 69¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 43¢ 42¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 94¢ $33 $47 +$14 (+42%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+72%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 52¢ 54¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+78%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $13 +$10 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $79 −$54 -68%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$34 +73%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$15 +146%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$45 -57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $34 +$26 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$32 +46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$133 +1290%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$39 +96%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $39 −$38 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $68 −$3 -5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $35 +$31 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$27 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $36 −$35 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 15m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 16m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $32 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $26 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $13 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $20 26h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 2d
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $36 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $46 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $42 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $31 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $34 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $39 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $70 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,735.99 · official $1,736.07 (match) · 2844 history records