Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

89 0x8953…b834 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$6 (-9%) realized −$2 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip

Net edge+84%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+83.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+103.0%	+83.7%	100%	100%	+83.7%
≤30d	1	+103.0%	+83.7%	100%	100%	+83.7%
≤90d	1	+103.0%	+83.7%	100%	100%	+83.7%
all	1	+103.0%	+83.7%	100%	100%	+83.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+83.7%	100%	+83.7%
10%	+66.1%	100%	+66.1%
15%	+50.0%	100%	+50.0%
20%	+35.3%	100%	+35.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +103% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +103% · $-wt +103% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized−$2

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	19¢	$19	$22	+$3 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-9%)
Senegal to score first vs. France?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+103%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$10	17m
Senegal to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	1h
Senegal to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	1h
Senegal to score first vs. France?	SELL Yes	22¢	$3	1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	1h
Senegal to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$19	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.91 · official $47.92 (match) · 13 history records