Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x894d…c9c6 other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$970 (+1%) realized +$970 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$1,143per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$393
politics 35% −$59
sports 16% +$602
world 3% −$3
culture 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -11.2% -19.7% 9% 4% -9.4%
all 120 +2.0% -7.7% 19% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 13% -8.9%
10% -16.6% 13% -17.6%
15% -24.6% 12% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,604) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$10 · ×8.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized+$970
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,143
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $904 $904 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,666 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,270 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,655 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,705 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,502 −$6 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,515 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $455 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $901 +$5 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $5,038 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $762 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,279 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) May 05 $1,090 +$976 +90%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,941 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,524 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,200 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $3,757 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $348 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $417 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,946 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $1,446 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $836 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $345 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $345 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $261 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $261 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $904 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,565 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,567 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,683 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,685 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,652 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,655 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,648 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,633 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,636 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,621 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,621 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,253 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,509 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,511 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,518 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,520 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,552 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,554 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,556 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,557 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.35 · official $904.35 (match) · 404 history records