Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x894c…64c5 crypto 600 markets active 20h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$126 (-6%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%237W / 363L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 515 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 39% -16.5%
≤90d 600 -9.5% -18.1% 40% 36% -17.5%
all 600 -9.5% -18.1% 40% 36% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 36% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 35% -25.4%
15% -33.1% 28% -32.6%
20% -39.7% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses237 / 363
Open positions0
Markets (closed)600 / 600
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 600 Trades
no open positions (298 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 28 $15 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 25 $228 −$19 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 25 $218 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 25 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 25 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 21 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1278 history records