Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
89 0x894b…a8e1 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+5%) realized +$6 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3
other 5% $0
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +22.9% +11.2% 71% 62% -6.3%
≤30d 24 +22.9% +11.2% 71% 62% -6.3%
≤90d 24 +22.9% +11.2% 71% 62% -6.3%
all 24 +22.9% +11.2% 71% 62% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 62% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here +0.6% 38% -15.3%
15% -9.1% 29% -23.4%
20% -18.0% 17% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 64¢ 59¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$3 -55%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $17 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $1 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 60¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag SELL GenOne 60¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 54¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 79¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $1 23h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 75¢ $6 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 74¢ $2 24h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 64¢ $5 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $1 24h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Heretics 44¢ $2 25h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 35¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 67¢ $6 27h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 52¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL Metizport 88¢ $7 28h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 52¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 62¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 100¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 76¢ $1 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $1 32h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 74¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 87¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 30¢ $1 2d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 59¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.87 · official $3.87 (match) · 83 history records