Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8949…5121 other 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 29% −$26
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage139d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $774 −$2 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $201 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $309 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $314 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $646 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $419 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $428 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $296 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $55 4h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 12h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 17h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 19h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 21h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 23h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 27h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 28h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 31h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 32h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 37h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 38h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 40h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 42h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 43h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 44h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.45 · official $54.45 (match) · 1421 history records