Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:11:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
89 0x8946…32f3 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$59
other 17% −$2
economics 10% −$1
politics 6% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 85 -0.8% -10.2% 58% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage233d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 25? Jun 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 20? May 25 $107 $0 +0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? May 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 19? Apr 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 31? Apr 10 $107 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $107 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 18? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 6? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Feb 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 Feb 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 3? Feb 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 31 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 31 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $107 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $107 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $107 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $107 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 38d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $107 38d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $107 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $107 61d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 61d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 64d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 64d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $107 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 65d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $107 65d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $107 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $107 69d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $107 69d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $107 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $107 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? SELL No 99¢ $106 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? BUY No 99¢ $106 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $107 88d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $107 88d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $107 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.74 · official $106.74 (match) · 191 history records