Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8943…6c65 sports 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,647 (-7%) realized −$1,967 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%113W / 107L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$415est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$50
14 days−$281
30 days−$6,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,620
crypto 3% −$187
world 2% −$153
other 2% −$24
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +27.7% +15.5% 50% 50% -26.2%
≤30d 128 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 34% -48.1%
≤90d 220 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 42% -14.2%
all 220 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 42% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 42% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 35% -22.4%
15% -30.9% 27% -29.9%
20% -37.7% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$107 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$1,967
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses113 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$415
Open positions25
Markets (closed)220 / 235
History coverage59d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 92¢ $23 $33 +$9 (+41%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $26 $29 +$2 (+9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $32 $23 −$10 (-30%)
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? No 95¢ 91¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 65¢ 38¢ $26 $15 −$11 (-42%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 25¢ 80¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+218%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 70¢ 98¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 73¢ 92¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 79¢ 97¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 58¢ 84¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+44%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 61¢ 59¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No 91¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 22¢ 31¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 52¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$23 +261%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $14 +$7 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 +$11 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 +$18 +132%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$21 +137%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $94 −$36 -39%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $83 +$11 +13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $208 −$185 -89%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $55 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $42 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? May 28 $119 −$2 -2%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $161 +$7 +4%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $318 −$170 -53%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $90 −$24 -27%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $308 −$186 -60%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3,803 −$3,803 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $107 +$27 +26%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 +$1 +51%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 23 $45 +$37 +83%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $809 −$291 -36%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $3,813 −$1,666 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $788 −$48 -6%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $681 +$107 +16%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $647 +$67 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $161 +$425 +263%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) May 20 $1 +$3 +246%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 May 20 $3 +$1 +23%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $7 +$9 +132%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 19 $29 +$3 +10%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $19 +$14 +75%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $20 −$14 -68%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $15 +$11 +76%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) May 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2 +$2 +149%
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) May 19 $1 $0 +15%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $9 −$3 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 37¢ $5 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $1 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $4 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $2 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $3 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $1 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 55¢ $1 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 47¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $14 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $15 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $3 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $3 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $2 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.12 · official $229.18 (match) · 3500 history records