Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x893f…32bd other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+6%) realized +$27 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$75
politics 12% −$7
tech 10% +$12
world 9% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +45.0% +31.2% 100% 100% +31.2%
≤30d 6 +29.1% +16.8% 100% 67% +26.5%
≤90d 7 +31.1% +18.6% 100% 71% +26.6%
all 17 +16.2% +5.1% 76% 59% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 59% -0.9%
10% -4.9% 53% -10.4%
15% -14.1% 41% -19.0%
20% -22.5% 18% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage543d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $207 $213 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M May 22 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Dec 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $23 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 01 $15 +$2 +16%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 24 $15 +$4 +28%
TikTok banned in 2025? Jan 20 $14 +$25 +186%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.62 · official $212.62 (match) · 39 history records