Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x893b…e888 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,002 (+54%) realized +$2,001 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%33W / 32L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$1,999
politics 37% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.3% -30.6% 43% 43% -32.3%
≤30d 28 -6.9% -15.7% 50% 50% -10.0%
≤90d 65 -4.0% -13.1% 51% 51% +39.4%
all 65 -4.0% -13.1% 51% 51% +39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 51% +39.4%
10% -21.4% 51% +26.1%
15% -29.0% 49% +13.9%
20% -36.0% 42% +2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 93% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +54% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$4 · ×16.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.83 per $1 lost it wins $16.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$2,001
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses33 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage90d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Under 69¢ 87¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +65%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $4 +$2 +68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 06 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +70%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 03 $4 +$1 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 01 $4 +$1 +40%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $3 +$2 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 29 $2 +$3 +144%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $7 +$3 +43%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 25 $2 +$3 +117%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $2 +$3 +122%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 24 $4 +$1 +38%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 12 $6 +$3 +41%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 May 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Magic vs. Pistons May 12 $7 +$4 +67%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 12 $6 +$6 +88%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 May 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 01 $4 +$3 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) May 01 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 01 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 01 $8 +$7 +86%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 May 01 $7 +$7 +102%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 May 01 $7 +$8 +103%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $3 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $3 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 60¢ $3 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 5d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 59¢ $3 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 58¢ $1 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,378 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 10d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $3 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 13d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 74¢ $4 14d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 16d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 17d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $1 18d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $2 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 20d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 70¢ $7 21d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 22d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Cavaliers 47¢ $2 23d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 26d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 27d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.35 · official $4.28 (match) · 178 history records