Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x893a…2af1 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+10%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.3% -7.4% 56% 52% -3.7%
≤30d 25 +2.3% -7.4% 56% 52% -3.7%
≤90d 25 +2.3% -7.4% 56% 52% -3.7%
all 25 +2.3% -7.4% 56% 52% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 52% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 48% -12.9%
15% -24.4% 44% -21.3%
20% -31.8% 32% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records