Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8935…8271 crypto 75 markets active 20h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate72%52W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$4
other 16% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -8.7% -17.4% 72% 43% -16.6%
≤30d 72 -8.7% -17.4% 72% 43% -16.6%
≤90d 72 -8.7% -17.4% 72% 43% -16.6%
all 72 -8.7% -17.4% 72% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 43% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 18% -24.6%
15% -32.5% 6% -31.9%
20% -39.1% 1% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses52 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.07 · official $9.07 (match) · 175 history records