Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8935…745c sports 237 markets active 7h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,026 (-11%) realized −$2,022 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%99W / 121L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$1,040
14 days−$1,656
30 days−$1,555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$847
other 26% −$1,402
sports 21% −$45
crypto 4% −$38
politics 2% +$268
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% −$21
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +8.6% -1.8% 51% 47% -23.4%
≤30d 192 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 38% -22.4%
≤90d 199 -5.6% -14.6% 45% 38% -20.6%
all 220 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 38% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 38% -19.5%
10% -21.3% 35% -27.2%
15% -28.9% 32% -34.2%
20% -35.8% 27% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$46 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$2,022
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses99 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions17
Markets (closed)220 / 237
History coverage707d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 53¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 52¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? No 46¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 46¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? No 34¢ 36¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? No 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? No 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 28 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$10 +108%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 +$10 +108%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$10 +92%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $15 +$5 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $13 +$7 +59%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $13 +$7 +54%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $9 +$11 +117%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $332 −$5 -2%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $996 −$3 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $152 +$30 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $7 +$14 +206%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$12 +152%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $13 +$7 +59%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $11 +$10 +90%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $530 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $71 +$5 +7%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $575 +$1 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $130 +$70 +54%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 +$17 +488%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $496 +$304 +61%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$12 +163%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$8 +42%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $7 +$13 +186%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $113 +$53 +47%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $110 +$90 +82%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $348 +$152 +44%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $88 −$88 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $230 −$230 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $105 −$2 -2%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 22 $243 −$243 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $26 +$24 +92%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $279 +$271 +97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $186 −$134 -72%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $37 −$13 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $6 7h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $3 8h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 46¢ $9 9h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 25¢ $2 9h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $6 10h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 25¢ $1 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 20¢ $4 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 26¢ $5 11h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 25¢ $0 13h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $6 14h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $11 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 42¢ $8 15h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 46¢ $0 15h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 46¢ $1 15h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 34¢ $7 16h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 46¢ $8 16h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 16h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $7 16h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 16h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $2 16h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 16h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $10 16h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $9 17h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 25¢ $2 17h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 18h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $8 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $10 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.42 · official $177.43 (match) · 1299 history records