trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $1,788 | $0 | −$1,788 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $4,724 | +$394 | +8% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $39,064 | +$2,846 | +7% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | Jun 09 | $2,119 | −$1,994 | -94% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | Jun 09 | $508 | −$297 | -58% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $188 | −$34 | -18% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -32.2% | -38.6% | 40% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -32.2% | -38.6% | 40% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -32.2% | -38.6% | 40% | 0% | -7.3% |
| all | 5 | -32.2% | -38.6% | 40% | 0% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -38.6% | 0% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -44.5% | 0% | -16.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -49.9% | 0% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -54.8% | 0% | -31.7% |