Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8934…2c51 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-21%) realized −$1 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$25
sports 32% −$17
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.0% -31.2% 33% 33% -19.8%
≤30d 9 -24.0% -31.2% 33% 33% -19.8%
≤90d 9 -24.0% -31.2% 33% 33% -19.8%
all 9 -24.0% -31.2% 33% 33% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 33% -19.8%
10% -37.8% 33% -27.5%
15% -43.8% 22% -34.5%
20% -49.3% 11% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $19 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 92¢ $11 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 87¢ $10 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 10¢ $3 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $6 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 82¢ $6 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 69¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 22 history records