Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
89 0x8934…9830 other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$93 (+0%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 48L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 62% −$14
other 16% +$10
politics 16% −$9
sports 3% +$101
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 15 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 7% -10.6%
≤90d 55 +12.0% +1.3% 27% 20% -8.2%
all 67 +11.2% +0.6% 28% 18% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 18% -9.2%
10% -9.0% 18% -17.8%
15% -17.8% 16% -25.8%
20% -25.9% 16% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage586d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $117 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $181 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $9 +$7 +76%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $348 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $178 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $175 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $355 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $193 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$10 +165%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 +$6 +104%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $14 +$3 +24%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 +$8 +109%
Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5 Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $25 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $12 5d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 5d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 13d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $6 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 20d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 20d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.97 · official $171.97 (match) · 246 history records