Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8933…1b75 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$171 (+22%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$163
crypto 49% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.2% -37.7% 44% 44% -5.6%
≤30d 16 -31.2% -37.7% 44% 44% -5.6%
≤90d 16 -31.2% -37.7% 44% 44% -5.6%
all 16 -31.2% -37.7% 44% 44% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 44% -5.6%
10% -43.7% 38% -14.6%
15% -49.1% 31% -22.9%
20% -54.1% 19% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$24 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 30 $51 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 30 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 30 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 30 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 30 $5 +$5 +88%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 30 $391 +$163 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $18 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 70¢ $293 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 70¢ $8 34h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 70¢ $91 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records