Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8933…630d other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$554 (-17%) realized −$565 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%7W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$142
sports 43% +$804
world 3% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +1.0% -8.6% 14% 14% +8.6%
≤30d 51 +1.0% -8.6% 14% 14% +8.6%
≤90d 51 +1.0% -8.6% 14% 14% +8.6%
all 51 +1.0% -8.6% 14% 14% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 14% +8.6%
10% -17.3% 14% -1.8%
15% -25.3% 14% -11.3%
20% -32.6% 14% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$348 vs −$43 · ×8.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses7 / 44
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $40 $116 +$76 (+189%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $704 +$1,113 +158%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $38 −$37 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $37 −$36 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $31 +$302 +980%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $31 +$157 +509%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $31 +$184 +596%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $31 +$169 +550%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $24 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $31 +$269 +874%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $31 +$242 +785%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $116 −$114 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $303 −$200 -66%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $305 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,818 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $704 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $306 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.47 · official $412.49 · 64 history records