Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
89 0x8930…18db sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,855 (-70%) realized −$16,284 · open +$429
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,641per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$16,800
sports 25% +$1,368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 33% -86.9%
≤90d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 33% -86.9%
all 3 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 33% -86.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 33% -86.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 33% -88.1%
15% -29.2% 33% -89.3%
20% -36.1% 33% -90.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,756 vs −$8,809 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$4,340
Realized−$16,284
Unrealized+$429
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5,641
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 88¢ 98¢ $3,911 $4,340 +$429 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $16,881 −$16,800 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $936 +$1,756 +188%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $821 −$817 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 88¢ $3,925 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 84¢ $16,881 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 54¢ $452 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 54¢ $28 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 54¢ $5 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 54¢ $54 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 52¢ $4 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 53¢ $277 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $90 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $5 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $63 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $10 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $416 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $5 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $3 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $5 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $467 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $153 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $316 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,339.57 · official $4,339.57 (match) · 21 history records