Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x892d…f806 other 24 markets active 7d ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$207 (-20%) realized −$209 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$145
crypto 32% −$91
sports 9% +$19
tech 4% −$36
culture 2% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 21 +12.8% +2.1% 38% 38% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 38% -29.6%
10% -7.7% 33% -36.3%
15% -16.6% 29% -42.5%
20% -24.8% 10% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage601d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 25 $20 +$47 +237%
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? Nov 26 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 26 $237 −$58 -24%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? Nov 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend? Nov 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend? Nov 25 $10 +$89 +886%
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? Nov 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? Nov 17 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 16 $65 −$14 -21%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? Nov 16 $73 +$10 +14%
Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving? Nov 09 $48 +$21 +43%
Will Max Verstappen win the Mexico City Grand Prix? Nov 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the Mexico City Grand Prix? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Mexico City Grand Prix? Nov 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend? Oct 28 $35 +$14 +41%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend? Oct 27 $46 −$31 -69%
Will Max Verstappen win the United States Grand Prix? Oct 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the United States Grand Prix? Oct 25 $54 −$36 -66%
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend? Oct 25 $30 +$10 +33%
Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend? Oct 19 $26 +$12 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 24d
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? BUY $3k 49¢ $20 136d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 173d
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y BUY Yes 30¢ $20 173d
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend? BUY No 46¢ $131 567d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? SELL No 82¢ $131 567d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 62¢ $99 568d
Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 568d
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 570d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? SELL No $12 571d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 54¢ $36 573d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 573d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 573d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? SELL Yes 86¢ $26 576d
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 577d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 62¢ $62 577d
Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 577d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? BUY No 88¢ $73 581d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 581d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 581d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? BUY No 63¢ $22 582d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? BUY No 63¢ $3 582d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 582d
Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving? SELL No 86¢ $69 584d
Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 587d
Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving? BUY No 60¢ $48 587d
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 596d
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend? SELL Yes $5 597d
Will Max Verstappen win the Mexico City Grand Prix? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 598d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.49 · official $72.49 (match) · 230 history records