Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x892a…0039 politics 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$118 (+0%) realized +$122 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 77L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1,499per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$29
14 days−$98
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$111
other 30% +$23
sports 4% +$169
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% −$1
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 43 +10.0% -0.5% 12% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 87 +7.6% -2.6% 11% 8% -9.5%
all 87 +7.6% -2.6% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 8% -9.5%
10% -11.9% 8% -18.1%
15% -20.4% 8% -26.0%
20% -28.2% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,747) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$5 · ×9.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1,499
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $396 $392 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,960 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,658 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,614 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,934 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,601 −$7 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,763 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,978 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,833 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $3,143 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,685 −$3 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $53 +$69 +129%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $812 +$3 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,748 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,390 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 24 $60 +$158 +262%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,348 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $3,052 −$5 -0%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 21 $50 +$126 +250%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 21 $840 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $65 +$60 +93%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,648 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,320 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,339 $0 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,486 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,692 1h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,694 4h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,619 4h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,621 6h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,656 9h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,658 11h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 26h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 31h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,508 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,511 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,238 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,296 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $396 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,610 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,489 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,491 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,633 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,635 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,479 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,481 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,535 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,536 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,667 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,670 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,577 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,579 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,683 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.37 · official $392.37 (match) · 261 history records