Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8929…9f55 crypto 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-32%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$7
politics 49% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -60.8% -64.5% 20% 0% -80.9%
≤30d 5 -60.8% -64.5% 20% 0% -80.9%
≤90d 5 -60.8% -64.5% 20% 0% -80.9%
all 5 -60.8% -64.5% 20% 0% -80.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.5% 0% -80.9%
10% -67.9% 0% -82.8%
15% -71.0% 0% -84.4%
20% -73.9% 0% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.50 · official $9.50 (match) · 10 history records