Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

89 0x8921…1dcd other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$64 (+23%) realized +$61 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+12.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+20.6%	+9.1%	75%	75%	+19.4%
≤30d	5	+24.8%	+12.9%	80%	80%	+21.7%
≤90d	5	+24.8%	+12.9%	80%	80%	+21.7%
all	5	+24.8%	+12.9%	80%	80%	+21.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.9%	80%	+21.7%
10%	+2.1%	80%	+10.1%
15%	-7.8%	80%	-0.6%
20%	-16.8%	40%	-10.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.85 per $1 lost it wins $3.85

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$93

Realized+$61

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage10d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	90¢	100¢	$30	$33	+$3 (+11%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$25	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$22	−$22	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$40	+$25	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$48	+$20	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$30	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$30	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$22	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$40	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$48	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.88 · official $92.89 (match) · 12 history records