Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x891d…742c politics 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$76 (+0%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%26W / 100L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$852per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$55
other 36% −$303
sports 16% +$563
culture 3% −$141
economics 3% −$3
world 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -13.3% -21.6% 5% 1% -10.6%
all 126 -0.8% -10.3% 21% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 13% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 13% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 10% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,077) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$13 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage125d
Avg bet$852
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $388 +$2 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,102 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,156 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 20 $322 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,838 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $969 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $964 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $903 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,771 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $783 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,136 −$2 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,828 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,873 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $846 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,739 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $399 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $399 2h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 5h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $399 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $500 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $890 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $462 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $463 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $905 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $906 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $875 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $876 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $837 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $838 7d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $825 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $826 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $616 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $617 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $778 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $779 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $703 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $704 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $503 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $504 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $418 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $419 19d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $554 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.83 · official $499.83 (match) · 396 history records