Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x891a…237a crypto 149 markets active 23h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate68%102W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$32
14 days−$30
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +3.0% -6.8% 82% 32% -12.6%
≤30d 146 -8.0% -16.8% 68% 33% -13.0%
≤90d 149 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 32% -13.1%
all 149 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 32% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 32% -13.1%
10% -25.1% 18% -21.4%
15% -32.4% 11% -29.0%
20% -39.0% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses102 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage44d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$32 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $110 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $111 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $40 −$8 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 615 history records