Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x891a…b9dc other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$39
sports 22% −$19
politics 8% −$8
crypto 8% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$7
world 5% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage135d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $215 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $173 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $306 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $619 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $360 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $180 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $323 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $379 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 9h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 10h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 12h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 16h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 17h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 19h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 21h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $31 25h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 26h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 28h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 32h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 43h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 45h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1365 history records