Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8919…4d05 crypto 1052 markets active 3d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-2%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%622W / 429L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$45
14 days−$111
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$145
other 27% −$34
sports 4% −$7
world 2% +$2
politics 1% +$7
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -3.4% -12.6% 79% 45% -16.8%
≤30d 700 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 54% -12.4%
≤90d 1051 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 51% -12.7%
all 1051 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 51% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 51% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 36% -21.1%
15% -28.5% 23% -28.7%
20% -35.5% 21% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses622 / 429
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1051 / 1052
History coverage37d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1051 Trades
no open positions (264 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $6 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +13%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 98¢ $6 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $6 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $6 3d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $6 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $6 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $6 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 3d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $6 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $6 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1990 history records