Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x8919…0688
sports · 72 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$191 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$156 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$172
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage75d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 52¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Nottingham Forest FC 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Nottingham Forest FC 23¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Greece win on 2026-03-31? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luciano Darderi vs Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci 11¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) SC Freiburg 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 +$16 +62%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $25 +$15 +58%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $21 +$17 +78%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 +$23 +56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 +$22 +54%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$3 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $35 −$33 -93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $73 +$75 +103%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $25 +$12 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$27 +112%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 +$22 +99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +176%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $31 −$1 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $34 +$8 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$25 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $27 +$39 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +77%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $31 +$82 +260%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $31 +$34 +109%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 09 $19 +$91 +473%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) May 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 07 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 07 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 07 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 07 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 07 $9 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 07 $20 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 07 $14 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 07 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 07 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 07 $18 −$12 -68%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 04 $21 +$48 +226%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) May 04 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20 +$130 +643%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 04 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 04 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 04 $22 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$13
sports 39% +$172
crypto 10% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $41 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $40 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 58¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $38 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 62¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $63 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $21 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 62¢ $40 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $40 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 16¢ $21 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $33 19h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL 48¢ $33 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $62 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 51¢ $36 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 4¢ $2 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $17 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $35 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $148 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $21 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $178 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $194 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $19 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $19 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $17 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +17.6% +6.4% 60% 56% +9.6%
≤30d 26 +13.1% +2.3% 58% 54% +8.3%
≤90d 68 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 34% +2.0%
all 68 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 34% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% +2.0%
10% -20.7% 31% -7.7%
15% -28.4% 29% -16.7%
20% -35.4% 28% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.77 · official $192.69 · 196 history records