Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
89 0x8915…6a2a crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$358 (+6%) realized +$359 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate79%133W / 36L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day141.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$106
other 3% +$138
sports 1% +$42
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +6.7% -3.5% 79% 51% -5.2%
≤30d 169 +6.7% -3.5% 79% 51% -5.2%
≤90d 169 +6.7% -3.5% 79% 51% -5.2%
all 169 +6.7% -3.5% 79% 51% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 51% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 34% -14.3%
15% -21.1% 22% -22.6%
20% -28.9% 12% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$359
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses133 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)169 / 172
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day141.9
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$13 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$43 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$8 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.14 · official $111.14 (match) · 404 history records