Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8914…03c3 tech 415 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-4%) realized +$99 · open −$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%180W / 182L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day184.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$223
14 days+$219
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$120
finance 29% +$201
tech 25% +$137
world 8% −$186
crypto 4% −$65
sports 3% −$8
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -16.6% -24.6% 41% 26% -31.0%
≤30d 362 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 38% -2.2%
≤90d 362 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 38% -2.2%
all 362 +3.5% -6.3% 50% 38% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover184.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 38% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 27% -11.6%
15% -23.5% 17% -20.1%
20% -31.0% 10% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses180 / 182
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions54
Markets (closed)362 / 415
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day184.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 81¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 72¢ 67¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Yes 51¢ 33¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 71¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 55¢ 87¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+58%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 56¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+65%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? Yes 42¢ 22¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? No 86¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Yes 29¢ 80¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+176%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? Yes 12¢ 33¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+176%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 17? No 9¢ 23¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+151%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 37¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+142%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $183 $2 −$181 (-99%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? No 69¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 45¢ 24¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? No 70¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Down 57¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 15 2026? No 68¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 in June? No 74¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 60¢ 16¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in June? No 59¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 in June? No 80¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -33%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $136 in June? Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -13%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -71%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$4 -30%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +45%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -65%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -23%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 8 2 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $122 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $3 +$4 +148%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $4.50? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $410? Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $405? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -31%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $90? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $570? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $245-$250 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -53%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading o Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $415? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $420? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $210? Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 53¢ $0 10m
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 43¢ $1 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 2h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 23¢ $1 3h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $1 3h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? SELL No 3¢ $2 3h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? SELL No 3¢ $1 3h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 47¢ $0 4h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 55¢ $1 4h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of June? SELL No 1¢ $0 28h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of June? SELL No 2¢ $0 28h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 66¢ $1 39h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 54¢ $1 40h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 50¢ $1 43h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1 44h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 74¢ $0 46h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 65¢ $1 46h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 SELL No 73¢ $1 46h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June? SELL No 91¢ $0 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 58¢ $1 2d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June? SELL No 88¢ $0 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL No 53¢ $0 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL No 57¢ $0 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 69¢ $1 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL No 59¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.24 · official $88.40 · 3500 history records