Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x8910…2873 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$39 (+10%) realized +$40 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$25
crypto 42% +$1
world 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.6% +8.2% 100% 67% +3.9%
≤30d 12 +8.2% -2.1% 75% 50% +1.9%
≤90d 14 +9.8% -0.7% 79% 50% +1.9%
all 15 +9.1% -1.3% 80% 47% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 47% +1.8%
10% -10.7% 27% -7.9%
15% -19.3% 7% -16.8%
20% -27.2% 7% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.3 per $1 lost it wins $31.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage140d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 95¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $70 +$17 +25%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $94 +$7 +8%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 19 $1 $0 +27%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $27 +$1 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1 $0 -40%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $2 $0 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 31 $1 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +18%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 08 $1 $0 +32%
Hyperlend FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 08 $4 $0 +6%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $75 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $87 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $101 1h
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 78¢ $1 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $94 13d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 84¢ $1 13d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 13d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $14 13d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 13d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 65¢ $1 19d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $12 19d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 19d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 42d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 42d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 42d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 42d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $1 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 83¢ $1 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 42d
Hyperlend FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $2 112d
Hyperlend FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $2 112d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $1 140d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $2 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.75 · official $174.75 (match) · 55 history records