Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x890f…d0ca world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%21W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$4
other 13% −$3
sports 12% $0
politics 9% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.8% -11.2% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 30 +4.7% -5.2% 47% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 65 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 3% -9.5%
all 66 -1.1% -10.5% 32% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses21 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage487d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -11%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 −$4 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 +$5 +19%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $39 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $117 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $51 +$2 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $41 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $27 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $60 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $39 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $70 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $71 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 57m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $7 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $41 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $43 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $43 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $23 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.29 · official $7.29 (match) · 270 history records