Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x890e…8084 crypto 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,539 (-1%) realized −$1,544 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%149W / 82L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,005now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 159d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1,444
crypto 32% −$3,534
politics 7% −$301
tech 5% +$55
sports 4% −$200
other 2% +$68
economics 2% −$2
finance 2% +$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -70.4% -73.2% 5% 5% -91.4%
≤30d 31 -39.8% -45.5% 35% 16% -15.6%
≤90d 53 -25.9% -32.9% 49% 21% -8.6%
all 231 -16.3% -24.2% 65% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 42% -12.4%
10% -31.5% 8% -20.7%
15% ← realistic here -38.1% 6% -28.4%
20% -44.2% 5% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$198 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$5,005
Realized−$1,544
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses149 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)231 / 215
History coverage159d ⚠
Avg bet$685
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,000 $2,998 −$2 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,000 $2,006 +$6 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 30 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 30 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 30 $265 −$198 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 30 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 30 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 30 $98 −$67 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 30 $299 −$299 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 30 $61 −$26 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 30 $149 −$164 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 30 $202 −$176 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 30 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 30 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 30 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 30 $243 −$243 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 30 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 30 $106 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 30 $11 +$31 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 30 $198 −$198 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $6,208 −$200 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$400 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,800 +$377 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $500 +$147 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $2,305 +$11 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,565 +$180 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2,825 +$75 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $2,818 +$52 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $2,755 +$45 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,967 +$371 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $9,177 +$1,166 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $1,640 +$80 +5%
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $304 +$90 +30%
Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $592 −$296 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $2,612 +$63 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 13 $1,960 −$805 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $130 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $2,424 +$66 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $302 −$139 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $3,267 +$99 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 10 $370 +$10 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $4,224 +$57 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 07 $958 −$13 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 28 $90 −$90 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1,450 +$305 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $5,205 +$1,334 +26%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $933 +$187 +20%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $1,040 −$174 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,560 +$428 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $3,002 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $2,008 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 79¢ $1,212 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 48¢ $2,184 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 94¢ $1,002 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 98¢ $5,002 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 40¢ $102 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 33¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 57¢ $203 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 68¢ $647 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $2,317 16d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,738 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,800 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 52¢ $500 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 19d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $2,825 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 98¢ $2,818 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 98¢ $1,829 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 98¢ $7 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 98¢ $1 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 98¢ $917 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $956 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $572 30d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,273 30d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $465 30d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $95 30d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $102 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,004.77 · official $5,004.77 (match) · 3500 history records