Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x890e…db10 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,278 (-0%) realized −$1,278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,892per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$4,991est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 163d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$10,661
other 13% −$550
crypto 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 36 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% -27.6%
≤90d 43 -5.9% -14.9% 42% 42% -12.5%
all 43 -5.9% -14.9% 42% 42% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 42% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 42% -20.9%
15% -30.4% 40% -28.5%
20% -37.3% 40% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$10,137) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +36% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,379 vs −$7,205 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$4,991
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage163d
Avg bet$7,892
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $1,976 −$1,939 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $4,989 −$4,899 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $407 −$400 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $86 −$84 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12,015 −$12,015 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 17 $16,997 −$16,997 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $662 −$662 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,585 −$3,585 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,467 −$4,467 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,367 −$6,367 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $9,000 −$9,000 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 17 $10,137 −$10,137 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9,450 −$9,450 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9,208 −$9,208 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $10,967 −$10,967 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12,100 −$12,100 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $706 +$2,886 +408%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $24,585 +$44,244 +180%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $9,240 +$12,737 +138%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $18,390 +$9,330 +51%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $25,500 −$22,833 -90%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $5,250 +$9,734 +185%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $6,822 −$6,822 -100%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $10,000 +$9,979 +100%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $6,719 +$5,665 +84%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $7,140 +$6,716 +94%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $7,560 +$6,425 +85%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $170 +$170 +100%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 May 31 $7,008 +$7,052 +101%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 May 31 $2,092 −$2,092 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? May 31 $7,989 −$7,989 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 31 $9,478 −$9,478 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6,621 −$6,621 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $11,912 −$11,912 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $9,985 +$7,147 +72%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $27,288 +$19,127 +70%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $12,506 +$14,806 +118%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $1,019 +$1,756 +172%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $1,880 +$435 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 17 $1,029 −$93 -9%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 17 $4,501 +$4,076 +91%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $8,946 +$6,533 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1,976 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $945 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $4,045 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 28¢ $488 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $407 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $86 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $6,367 14d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3,585 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $3,593 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $706 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $662 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10,967 18d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $16,997 20d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $3 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $90 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $3 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $304 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $40 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $59 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $153 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $1 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $3 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $15 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $3 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $929 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $3 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $197 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $16 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $5 21d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $4 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1018 history records