Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
89 0x890d…d9e6 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$37
politics 18% −$6
economics 5% −$2
sports 4% +$22
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 +0.8% -8.8% 11% 7% -9.6%
all 108 +0.8% -8.8% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 6% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 6% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage88d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $297 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $130 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $313 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $251 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $265 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $258 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $263 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $277 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $278 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $254 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 28 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $263 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $263 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $265 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $586 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $473 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $522 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $523 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $287 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $7 8h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 25h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 28h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 41h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $120 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $44 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $44 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.42 · official $127.42 (match) · 317 history records