Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x890d…e39c
other · 52 markets active 1h ago
7.0score
+$351 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$367 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$504
Realized+$367
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage65d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 6 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$845
14 days−$700
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Yes 20¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 28¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 27¢ $318 $0 −$318 (-100%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 11¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Yes 49¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 30¢ $189 $0 −$189 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic Magic 28¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? No 29¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Yes 45¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves Wolves 23¢ $152 $0 −$152 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 22¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 42¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1,172 −$912 -78%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $102 +$145 +142%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $204 +$135 +66%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 +$45 +44%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $330 +$478 +145%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $25 +$16 +64%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 05 $155 −$152 -98%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $233 +$195 +84%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $122 +$89 +74%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $97 −$95 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 02 $101 −$99 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $129 +$90 +70%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $99 +$136 +138%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $300 +$127 +42%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $193 −$189 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $153 −$7 -5%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $115 +$60 +52%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $57 +$37 +64%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $21 +$58 +276%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 23 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 18 $922 −$42 -5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $200 +$111 +55%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $110 +$439 +399%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $368 +$196 +53%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $92 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$994
politics 32% −$1,022
sports 27% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $142 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 42h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $128 43h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $52 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $208 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $143 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 28¢ $1,029 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $172 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $74 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 56¢ $174 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 49¢ $165 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $67 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 71¢ $147 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 20d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $809 26d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $105 29d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.8% -14.8% 40% 40% -66.9%
≤30d 11 +40.3% +26.9% 73% 64% -9.6%
≤90d 46 +8.6% -1.7% 46% 43% -4.1%
all 46 +8.6% -1.7% 46% 43% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 43% -4.1%
10% -11.1% 43% -13.3%
15% -19.7% 43% -21.6%
20% -27.6% 37% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.59 · official $503.59 (match) · 149 history records