Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
89 0x890d…c369 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-5%) realized −$51 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$957
7 days+$957
14 days+$957
30 days+$957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +58.0% +42.9% 50% 25% +90.7%
≤30d 4 +58.0% +42.9% 50% 25% +90.7%
≤90d 8 -21.0% -28.5% 25% 12% +8.6%
all 9 -29.8% -36.5% 22% 11% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 11% -14.1%
10% -42.6% 11% -22.3%
15% -48.1% 11% -29.8%
20% -53.2% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$584 vs −$181 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage224d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $240 +$25 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $199 −$187 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $332 +$1,144 +345%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 17? May 14 $100 −$94 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 18? May 14 $195 −$183 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27? Apr 26 $398 −$375 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 26? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 6? Nov 05 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.09 · official $48.65 · 19 history records