Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

89
0x890c…27fe
crypto · 242 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$132 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$114 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Net worth$216
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses137 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)239 / 242
History coverage149d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 3 History 239 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$1
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 61¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $905 −$36 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $490 +$45 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $904 +$16 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $425 +$71 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 15 $400 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $325 +$45 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? May 07 $312 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 29 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Apr 28 $100 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $388 +$60 +15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 27 $190 +$39 +20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 27 $25 −$8 -30%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 27 $3 −$1 -49%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Apr 26 $2 $0 +16%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$8 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $111 +$20 +18%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $163 +$21 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $245 −$29 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30? Apr 13 $195 +$8 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 13 $219 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 12 $3 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $1,977 −$294 -15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $198 −$29 -15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $209 −$1 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $1,527 −$227 -15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $324 −$120 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% −$128
crypto 9% −$9
other 3% +$4
sports 2% +$28
finance 1% +$1
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $74 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $348 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $370 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $342 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $100 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $200 13d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $101 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $193 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $29 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $111 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $147 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $50 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $40 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $25 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $200 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $30 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $115 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $100 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 56% 22% -6.8%
≤90d 52 -14.8% -22.9% 52% 31% -11.6%
all 239 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 34% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 34% -10.0%
10% -17.9% 21% -18.6%
15% -25.9% 13% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.99 · official $215.99 (match) · 772 history records