Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x890c…18b4 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 20% −$18
sports 8% $0
politics 5% $0
weather 5% +$18
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage474d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $122 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $86 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 29 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 27 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 23 $7 $0 -6%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 02 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $1 $0 -16%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on March 3? Mar 03 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on March 2? Mar 02 $17 +$20 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $25 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $8 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $6 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $20 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $19 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $23 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $30 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records