Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
89 0x8909…eba5 world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$6
other 31% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 10% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 10% 0% -10.7%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage450d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $79 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $37 −$3 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $40 −$3 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $105K on July 4? Jul 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 05 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 38m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $34 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $34 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $5 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $36 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $41 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $7 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $37 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $40 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $43 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records