Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
89 0x8904…5a63 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$137 (+21%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate81%21W / 5L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$101
crypto 25% +$34
sports 23% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +28.0% +15.8% 81% 77% +9.3%
≤30d 26 +28.0% +15.8% 81% 77% +9.3%
≤90d 26 +28.0% +15.8% 81% 77% +9.3%
all 26 +28.0% +15.8% 81% 77% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 77% +9.3%
10% +4.8% 65% -1.1%
15% -5.4% 54% -10.7%
20% -14.6% 35% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses21 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $131 +$62 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $33 −$21 -62%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 +$10 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +110%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $19 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 25¢ $13 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $33 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 71¢ $41 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $25 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $26 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records