Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x88fe…f516 world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$149 (+0%) realized +$155 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%39W / 43L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$73
14 days+$377
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1,138
other 24% −$1,189
crypto 11% +$1,376
politics 4% +$644
sports 3% −$1,713
economics 1% +$81
tech 0% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -47.5% -52.5% 43% 14% -10.7%
≤30d 10 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 30% -2.8%
≤90d 27 -26.6% -33.6% 48% 33% -14.4%
all 82 -18.2% -26.0% 48% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 33% -9.3%
10% -33.1% 23% -18.0%
15% -39.5% 23% -25.9%
20% -45.5% 17% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$195 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$4,703
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses39 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions13
Markets (closed)82 / 95
History coverage593d
Avg bet$624
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,186 +$186 (+9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $390 $408 +$18 (+5%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 50¢ $300 $204 −$96 (-32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $300 $172 −$128 (-42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $60 $112 +$52 (+87%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 67¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $65 $42 −$22 (-35%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $500 −$304 -61%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $480 +$20 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4,195 +$591 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $300 +$450 +150%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $203 +$136 +67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $102 −$46 -45%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $302 −$100 -33%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $100 +$84 +84%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $336 +$18 +5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 11 $100 −$57 -57%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $988 +$444 +45%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $695 −$691 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 06 $99 −$98 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 06 $302 −$300 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 04 $515 −$515 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $500 +$330 +66%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $111 −$111 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $50 +$30 +59%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 12 $45 +$7 +16%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $500 +$44 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $85 −$85 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $156 +$74 +47%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $624 −$100 -16%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $104 −$104 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 07 $600 −$600 -100%
Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl? Feb 07 $300 −$300 -100%
Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31? Dec 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Dec 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $800 +$76 +10%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 05 $524 −$524 -100%
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 202 Dec 04 $40 +$108 +270%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Dec 03 $380 +$37 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $40 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 26¢ $196 43h
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $104 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $90 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 62¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $100 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $200 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $65 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 96¢ $198 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 96¢ $282 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $200 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,000 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,900 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $295 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $300 11d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $196 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 18d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $300 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $56 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $203 26d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 42¢ $102 30d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Usyk 58¢ $125 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,702.67 · official $4,704.73 (match) · 523 history records